While Ukraine’s Kursk gamble
While Ukraine’s Kursk gamble fails, Russian gains pick up speed.
At a pivotal point in the fight, the Russian military is making rapid progress along the Ukrainian front line.
According to data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia is moving closer to important Ukrainian logistical hubs in the eastern.
Donbas region and has nearly doubled its territory in 2024 compared to 2023.
Ukraine’s unexpected invasion of Russia’s Kursk region is stalling in the meanwhile While Ukraine’s Kursk gamble. Kyiv’s attack has been pushed back by Russian soldiers.
The offensive’s success has been questioned by experts one has referred to it as a. Strategic calamity in light of Ukraine’s personnel shortfall.
Given the imminence of a second Donald Trump presidency, these developments occur during a period of increased uncertainty.
Some are concerned that the US president-elect may stop providing military assistance to.
Ukraine in the future, despite his pledge to end the conflict when he assumes office in January.
Russia makes progress in Ukraine’s east
The front line advanced swiftly in the early months of the conflict. With Russia rapidly capturing territory until being driven back by a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
However neither side achieved any significant progress in 2023. And the war essentially came to a standstill While Ukraine’s Kursk gamble.
However, fresh ISW data indicates that Russia will have a better narrative in 2024. Reports of troop movements and verified social media footage serve as the foundation for the ISW’s study.
According to ISW data, Moscow’s forces have nearly six-fold increased their capture of Ukrainian land.
Capturing about 2,700 square kilometers so far this year compared to just 465 square kilometers in 2023.
Dr. Marina Miron, a defense researcher at Kings College London.
Told the BBC that if Russia kept up its pace of progress. There was a chance the Ukrainian eastern front could truly collapse.
Between 1 September and 3 November, more than 1000 square kilometers were captured, indicating that the advance increased recently.
The two regions most affected by these developments are Kurakhove.
Which serves as a gateway to Pokrovsk, a vital logistical hub in the Donetsk region. And Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region While Ukraine’s Kursk gamble.
The Kharkiv offensive in 2022 liberated Kupiansk and regions east of the Oskil river. But Russia has gradually retaken the latter.
Russian soldiers were attempting to breach the city’s northeastern boundaries. According to a recent intelligence report from the UK’s Ministry of Defence.
This analysis is supported by footage that was posted on November 13 and confirmed by the BBC.
In the footage, a Russian armored convoy is shown being sent back after approaching the crucial bridge at Kupiansk.
The region’s final significant road crossing, within 4 kilometers.
These reports show how stretched Ukraine’s defensive line has gotten.
Even though they do not always convert into control of an area.
In addition, Russia has thrown resources at Kurakhove since regaining the city of Vuhledar in October.
A strategic location atop vital supply routes that Moscow fought for two years.
The city’s defending Ukrainian forces have so far repulsed strikes from the east and south.
However, Russia is also threatening to encircle defenders from the north and west as the front line gets closer and closer.
According to Col. Yevgeny Sasyko, a former head of strategic communications for Ukraine’s general staff.
Russia surrounds a city’s flanks with “strong jaws” that gradually “grind down” defenses until they fall.
BBC-verified footage from the city revealed extensive damage, including significant damage to residential buildings.
According to the ISW, Moscow currently controls 110,649 square kilometers of Ukraine.
In contrast, Russian forces have since retaken about half of the 1,171 square kilometers that Ukrainian forces captured in the first month of their incursion into Kursk.
Russia has gained territory, but the cost of its advance has been high.
At least 78,329 servicemen have been killed since Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to an estimate by BBC Russian.
Moscow’s casualties from September to November of this year were more than 1.5 times higher than those during the same period in 2023.
The “meat grinder” strategy, which refers to the waves of recruits hurled against Ukrainian lines in an attempt to deplete soldiers.
Is alleged to be preferred by Russian commanders and contributes to the casualties.
Although Russia has made progress, several analysts have pointed out that the offensive is still moving slowly.
According to military analyst David Handelman, rather than experiencing a wider collapse, Ukrainian troops in the east were gradually leaving to conserve resources and men.
The Kursk gambit
In August, Ukraine began its surprise invasion of the Kursk region of Russia.
Although Kyiv’s troops swiftly grabbed control of several border settlements, it is unclear why Russia took so long to react to the operation.
According to Dr. Miron, Russia’s general command had been eager to keep Ukraine’s forces confined in Kursk while its forces advanced elsewhere along the front line.
Even though the Kremlin would bear domestic political costs as long as the incursion went on.
However, it is now evident that Moscow wants to regain the lost territories on its own territory. Approximately fifty thousand troops have been sent to the area.
Verified footage from the Kursk region demonstrates that intense combat is occurring and that Russia is losing a significant amount of personnel and equipment.
However, it is evident from the data that Ukraine’s dominance over the area is waning.
According to ISW data, Russian counterattacks have reclaimed about 593 square kilometers of ground in the border region since the beginning of October.
At first, the Kursk incursion was a huge morale boost for Ukraine at a period of severe setbacks.
And the operation’s boldness served as a reminder of its capacity to ambush and injure its adversary.
However, Dr. Miron claimed that although the Kursk invasion was a display of “tactical genius,” Ukraine has suffered a “strategic tragedy.”
The goal was to militarily entice Russian forces to leave the Donbas in order to free Kursk, while also maybe gaining some political clout in future talks. Instead, we are witnessing Ukrainian units penned down there.
It is known that some of Kyiv’s most skilled and productive troops are engaged in combat in Kursk. Modern Western armour is also used by mechanised units that are part of the assault.
In order to stall the Russian advance in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian commanders had made it clear that they believed the incursion would force Moscow to reroute some of its forces from that region.
The majority of reinforcements, according to experts, were transferred from less-conflict areas of Ukraine to Kursk.
Yurri Clavilier, a land analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Told the BBC that Ukrainian soldiers from several front lines said that the Russian forces bolstering Kursk were primarily drawn from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
“Compared to the East, the conflict there is not as fierce.
Ukraine was able to halt the Russian assault on Kharkiv, and some of the Russian units that were attacking that city were diverted to Kursk,” he continued.
Because it strengthens their position in any future discussions, land is important to both sides.
US President-elect Trump has stated that he could put an end to the war in a day, but he has not specified how. This is despite the fact that no peace talks have been considered.
A day after Washington granted Ukraine permission to do so, Ukraine launched its first long-range missiles into Russia on Tuesday.
The decision is believed to have been made in part to provide Ukraine the ability to retain a portion of the Kursk territory as a negotiating chip in further talks.
However, as Trump’s new foreign policy team gets ready to assume office, Dr. Miron told the BBC that Russia’s advance has given them a stronger negotiation position.
“They certainly have a certain advantage because of what they are controlling right now,” she said. As the Russian side has been emphasizing, “we will do it depending on the battlefield configuration” if it came to discussions.
“From a Russian standpoint, their cards are far superior to those of the Ukrainians.”
