Kamala Harris must overcome
To win, Kamala Harris must overcome the fundamentals.
Former President Donald Trump should be running away with this election given how few people think the country is moving in the right direction.
Rather, Trump and Kamala Harris, the vice president, are tied in the polls. It is unclear now if Harris will be able to retain the support of so many voters who believe that our course is incorrect. It is evident that Harris must challenge certain fundamentals in order to prevail next month, and her past performance indicates that she may succeed.
When I refer to fundamentals, I mean inquiries that go beyond the horse race, such as asking citizens if they believe that the nation is on the right or wrong path.
That is significantly less than what it was in 2021, when Joe Biden assumed office, when that number was much more than 40%.
Whether the incumbent is running or not, a president’s party does not want to be at 28% a month before the election. In elections won by the party in power since 1980, 42% of Americans on average have said that things are going well in the nation.
That seems a lot like the current 28% who say as much.
Upon deeper inspection, the statistics show that in every case where less than 39% of voters believed that the nation was headed in the right path, the ruling party did not win reelection for another term.
Presidential approval ratings represent another basic that raises comparable concerns for Harris. It goes without saying that a president’s approval rating is less indicative when the incumbent is not seeking reelection. Still, it carries some modicum of importance.
These are just two examples of public opinion indicators that will hurt Harris’ chances of winning in November.
Ranging from party identification to contentment with the economy to presidential approval. Of those ten, eight were thought to be favorable to Trump. The other two had no opinion. Not one of the ten suggested that Harris would win.
Even though these facts favor Trump, Harris might have an advantage because of the 2022 midterm elections.
According to my average of polls. Only 26% of Americans believed that the country was headed in the right direction.
Prior to a midterm, that 26% was the lowest percentage in the preceding forty years.
In other words, the Democratic Party did not benefit from many, if any, of the metrics in 2022.
Democrats, however, bucked the trends of the midterm elections, maintaining single-digit House losses, increasing their Senate majority, and gaining governorships.
The two main elements that arguably contributed most to Democrats’ success are still in place today: Abortion and Trump.
Trump still boasts a net unfavorable rating with American voters. If he wins the presidency next month, he would be the least popular candidate to accomplish it. Except for Trump himself in 2016. In practically every poll, Harris is more popular than the outgoing president.
Two years after Roe v. Wade was reversed, abortion remains one of the most popular issues, and this autumn. Ballot initiatives to increase access to abortion will be on the ballot in several states. Recall that during the 50 years prior to Roe, every presidential election occurred. With so many voters outraged at the removal of federal safeguards for abortion. It is difficult to predict what will happen.
As they say, history is not always meant to be repeated, but the past is frequently prologue.
